In terms of crude oil, overnight US Oil and Buyou Piaolv fell 0.06% and 0.21% respectively. There are signs that the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East will not escalate, and there is uncertainty in US oil inventories. Currently, traders are waiting for a two week oil supply data report to be released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.

    On Tuesday, the IEA raised its forecast for oil demand growth for this year and the next two years, despite predicting a slowdown in economic growth for almost all major economies and a much lower outlook for 2024 than the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The IEA predicts that the global oil demand growth forecast for 2023 will increase from 2.3 million barrels per day last month to 2.4 million barrels per day, which is closer to the OPEC forecast of 2.46 million barrels per day. The growth forecast for 2024 has been raised from 880000 barrels per day to 93000 barrels per day, far below the OPEC forecast of 2.25 million barrels per day.

    The Paris based agency stated that the oil market may turn into oversupply in early 2024, after the market had been in a "severe shortage" state due to voluntary production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia that continued until the end of the year.

    Tonight, the US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 10th, the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending November 10th, and the EIA strategic oil reserve inventory data for the week ending November 10th will be released.

 In terms of the US dollar, the overnight US dollar index plummeted significantly, hitting a new low of 103.98 since September 1, 2023, closing down 1.50%. The US dollar fell 0.58% against the offshore Chinese yuan, hitting a new low of 7.2491 since September 1, 2023. Previously, US consumer price data showed a further slowdown in the pace of inflation in October, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve has completed its interest rate hike.

    The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that as gasoline prices fell, US consumer prices remained flat month on month in October, and rose 0.4% month on month in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.2% year-on-year in October and 3.7% in September. After the report was released, the US dollar plummeted in response, and US government bond yields plummeted. The benchmark 10-year bond yield fell below 4.5%, removing a major support for the strengthening of the US dollar this year.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other decision-makers have been trying in recent days to downplay expectations that the Fed has ended its aggressive rate hike cycle. The US dollar index fell 1.55% to 103.980, set to record its largest daily percentage decline since November 11, 2022.

The US dollar is also set to experience its largest decline against the euro and pound since November 2022. The US dollar fell 1.73% against the euro to $1.089; The US dollar fell 1.82% against the British pound to $1.250; The US dollar fell 1.52% to 0.888 against the Swiss franc.

    The Japanese yen also rose against the US dollar, but the increase was smaller than other currencies. The Japanese yen rose 0.97% against the US dollar to 150.23 yen, which was under pressure earlier. The yen briefly rose against the US dollar on Monday after hitting a one-year low, due to a surge in options trading volume rather than any intervention by the Japanese authorities. In September and October of last year, the Japanese authorities since 1998.

    On Tuesday local time, renowned journalist Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Federal Reserve News Agency," wrote a joint article stating that the trend of slowing inflation in the United States has continued into October, and the Federal Reserve may have completed its current interest rate hike cycle. If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged next month, it is expected to extend the current suspension period to around 6 months.

    According to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation", the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in the 5.25% -5.50% range in December is 99.8%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the 5.50% -5.75% range is 0.2%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by January next year is 97.8%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate increase of 25 basis points is 0.2%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate increase of 50 basis points is 0%.

Today's macro aspect: According to reports, on November 14th local time, Chinese national chairman arrived at San Francisco to hold the China US dollar summit with US President Biden and attend the 30th APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting.Pay attention to the subsequent progress.

    The annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in China in October and the annual rate of industrial added value above designated size in October will be announced; France's third quarter ILO unemployment rate and October CPI monthly rate; UK October CPI monthly rate and October retail price index monthly rate; Eurozone trade accounts after quarterly adjustment in September and monthly industrial output rate in September; Monthly wholesale sales rate in Canada in September. 

In terms of the metal market, overnight, the basic metals in the internal market closed higher, with alumina rising by 1.55%, Shanghai zinc rising by 1.02%, Shanghai nickel rising by 0.76%, Shanghai aluminum rising by 0.61%, Shanghai lead rising by 0.39%, Shanghai copper rising by 0.33%, and Shanghai tin rising by 0.17%.

    The black series is all reddish, with iron ore increasing by 3.33%, coke increasing by 3.13%, coking coal increasing by 3.01%, threaded steel increasing by 2.54%, hot coil increasing by 2.18%, and stainless steel increasing by 0.07%.

In terms of iron ore, according to SMM statistics, the impact of blast furnace maintenance this week was 1.4582 million tons of molten iron, a decrease of 154500 tons compared to last week's maintenance. Therefore, this week's blast furnace molten iron production slightly rebounded, supporting the iron ore demand

    Shanghai Gold and Silver rose 0.57% and 2.32% respectively. COMEX gold and silver rose 0.87% and 3.54% respectively.

    LME metal rose by only 0.36% for aluminum, 2.24% for zinc, 1.94% for lead, 1.10% for tin, 0.35% for copper, and 0.14% for nickel.